آمار

تعداد نشریات9
تعداد شماره‌ها451
تعداد مقالات5,745
تعداد مشاهده مقاله8,175,635
تعداد دریافت فایل اصل مقاله6,664,989
هروی, غلامرضا, کتابی, امیربهادر. (1400). تدوین مدل‌های ارزیابی سطح ایمنی پروژه‌های ساختمانی به روش‌های رگرسیون چندمتغیره خطی و شبکه‌ی بیزین. نشریه مهندسی عمران امیرکبیر, 53(11), 4657-4682. doi: 10.22060/ceej.2020.18439.6872
غلامرضا هروی; امیربهادر کتابی. "تدوین مدل‌های ارزیابی سطح ایمنی پروژه‌های ساختمانی به روش‌های رگرسیون چندمتغیره خطی و شبکه‌ی بیزین". نشریه مهندسی عمران امیرکبیر, 53, 11, 1400, 4657-4682. doi: 10.22060/ceej.2020.18439.6872
هروی, غلامرضا, کتابی, امیربهادر. (1400). 'تدوین مدل‌های ارزیابی سطح ایمنی پروژه‌های ساختمانی به روش‌های رگرسیون چندمتغیره خطی و شبکه‌ی بیزین', نشریه مهندسی عمران امیرکبیر, 53(11), pp. 4657-4682. doi: 10.22060/ceej.2020.18439.6872
هروی, غلامرضا, کتابی, امیربهادر. تدوین مدل‌های ارزیابی سطح ایمنی پروژه‌های ساختمانی به روش‌های رگرسیون چندمتغیره خطی و شبکه‌ی بیزین. نشریه مهندسی عمران امیرکبیر, 1400; 53(11): 4657-4682. doi: 10.22060/ceej.2020.18439.6872

تدوین مدل‌های ارزیابی سطح ایمنی پروژه‌های ساختمانی به روش‌های رگرسیون چندمتغیره خطی و شبکه‌ی بیزین

نشریه مهندسی عمران امیرکبیر
مقاله 6، دوره 53، شماره 11، بهمن 1400، صفحه 4657-4682    اصل مقاله (2.63 M)
نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی
شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22060/ceej.2020.18439.6872
نویسندگان
غلامرضا هروی* ؛ امیربهادر کتابی
دانشکده مهندسی عمران، پردیس دانشکده های دانشکده فنی، دانشگاه تهران، تهران، ایران
چکیده
صنعت ساخت سهم عمده‌ای از صنعت را در کشورهای مختلف به خود اختصاص می‌دهد. نرخ حوادث، سوانح و تلفات در این بخش از صنعت، بسیار بیشتر از سایر صنایع گزارش شده است. ایمنی یکی از دغدغه‌های اصلی در صنعت ساخت است. از جمله بخش‌های پرخطر این صنعت، احداث ساختمان‌های بلندمرتبه است در این تحقیق تلاش شده است تا با ارزیابی سطح عوامل تأثیرگذار بر ایمنی پروژه، بتوان سطح ایمنی پروژه‌های آتی را بر پایه‌ی سوابق و اطلاعات پروژه‌های پیشین، پیش‌بینی نمود، چرا که با درک صحیح از میزان تأثیرگذاری عوامل بر ایمنی، می‌توان سیاست‌های لازم جهت بهبود ایمنی و کاهش صدمات این بخش از صنعت را پیش گرفت و مانع هدررفت منابع کشور شد. برای رسیدن به این هدف ابتدا، نه عامل تأثیرگذار بر ایمنی به کمک مطالعه ادبیات پیشین و مرور آمار غیررسمی حوادث ناشی از کار کشور، شناسایی شده است و در ادامه رابطه‌ی میان این عوامل و سطح ایمنی پروژه برای 95 پروژه واقع در شهر تهران و جزیره‌ی زیبای کیش که اطلاعات آن‌ها به کمک پرسش‌نامه جمع‌آوری گردیده، به کمک شبکه‌ی بیزین و رگرسیون خطی چندمتغیره، مورد بررسی قرار گرفته است. در مدل‌سازی‌های پیشنهادی این تحقیق، میزان اثر هر یک از گروه‌های تأثیرگذار بر ایمنی پروژه، با کاوش در اطلاعات پروژه‌های مشابهِ پیشین، تعیین می‌شود. طبق نتایج این پژوهش، "نظارت و سرپرستی بر ایمنی پروسه‌های کاری" و "روند ایمن انجام کار"، از جمله‌ی تأثیرگذارترین عوامل بر سطح ایمنی پروژه‌های بلندمرتبه‌سازی با ضرائب رگرسیونی 0/338 و 0/264 می‌باشند.
کلیدواژه‌ها
صنعت ساخت؛ پروژه‌های ساختمانی؛ خطرات ایمنی؛ ریسک‌های ایمنی؛ سطح ایمنی پروژه
موضوعات
ایمنی پروژه های ساختمانی
عنوان مقاله [English]
Development of Safety Level Assessment Models for Building Projects using Multiple Linear Regression and Bayesian Network
نویسندگان [English]
Gholam reza Heravi؛ Amirbahador Ketabi
چکیده [English]
The construction industry accounts for a large share of the industry in various countries. The rate of accidents and deaths in this industry is much higher than in other industries. Safety is a major concern in the construction industry. One of the most dangerous parts of the industry is the construction of high-rise buildings. In this research, an attempt has been made to evaluate the level of factors affecting the safety of the project, to be able to predict the level of safety of future projects based on the records and information of previous projects. Because with a correct understanding of the impact of factors on safety, it is possible to take the necessary policies to improve safety and reduce damage to this part of the industry and prevent the waste of resources. To achieve this purpose, first, the factors affecting safety have been identified by reviewing the literature and reviewing the unofficial statistics of work-related accidents, and then the relationship between these factors and the level of project safety for 95 projects in Tehran and Kish Island is developed. It was conducted with the help of a questionnaire, with the help of a Bayesian network and multiple linear regression. In the proposed model, the effect of each of the groups affecting the safety of the project is determined. “Monitoring and supervising the safety" and "safe process of doing work" are among the most influential factors on the safety level of high-rise building projects; regression coefficients were 0.338 and 0.264, respectively.
کلیدواژه‌ها [English]
Construction industry, Building projects, Safety hazards, Safety risks, Project safety level
مراجع
  1. S. Abdelhamid, J.G. Everett, Identifying root causes of construction accidents, Journal of construction engineering and management, 126(1) (2000) 52-60.
  2. R. Hallowell, J.W. Hinze, K.C. Baud, A. Wehle, Proactive construction safety control: Measuring, monitoring, and responding to safety leading indicators, Journal of construction engineering and management, 139(10) (2013) 04013010.
  3. Hinze, J.A. Gambatese, Addressing construction worker safety in project design, Bureau of Engineering Research, University of Texas at Austin, 1996.
  4. Saberi, key project management skills, Faraa, 2006, (in persian).
  5. Gilani-nia, Optimization of safety processes in the construction industry by helping a decision support system, Journal of Business Management, 31 (2008) 159 – 178, (in persian).
  6. Fang, H. Wu, Development of a Safety Culture Interaction (SCI) model for construction projects, Safety science, 57 (2013) 138-149.
  7. Irizarry, K.L. Simonsen, D.M. Abraham, Effect of safety and environmental variables on task durations in steel erection, Journal of construction engineering and management, 131(12) (2005) 1310-1319.
  8. Han, F. Saba, S. Lee, Y. Mohamed, F. Peña-Mora, Toward an understanding of the impact of production pressure on safety performance in construction operations, Accident Analysis & Prevention, 68 (2014) 106-116.
  9. Wanberg, C. Harper, M.R. Hallowell, S. Rajendran, Relationship between construction safety and quality performance, Journal of construction engineering and management, 139(10) (2013) 04013003.
  10. J. Burby, R.E. Deyle, D.R. Godschalk, R.B. Olshansky, Creating hazard resilient communities through land-use planning, Natural hazards review, 1(2) (2000) 99-106.
  11. Carter, S.D. Smith, Safety hazard identification on construction projects, Journal of construction engineering and management, 132(2) (2006) 197-205.
  12. Howarth, P. Watson, Construction Safety Management, Wiley, 2008.
  13. D. Reese, J.V. Eidson, Handbook of OSHA construction safety and health, Crc Press, 2006.
  14. Hinze, X. Huang, L. Terry, The nature of struck-by accidents, Journal of construction engineering and management, 131(2) (2005) 262-268.
  15. Hinze, C. Pedersen, J. Fredley, Identifying root causes of construction injuries, Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 124(1) (1998) 67-71.
  16. M. Choudhry, D. Fang, H. Lingard, Measuring safety climate of a construction company, Journal of construction Engineering and Management, 135(9) (2009) 890-899.
  17. Imriyas, An expert system for strategic control of accidents and insurers’ risks in building construction projects, Expert Systems with Applications, 36(2) (2009) 4021-4034.
  18. Patel, K. Jha, Structural equation modeling for relationship-based determinants of safety performance in construction projects, Journal of Management in Engineering, 32(6) (2016) 05016017.
  19. Wu, Q. Liu, L. Zhang, M.J. Skibniewski, Y. Wang, Prospective safety performance evaluation on construction sites, Accident Analysis & Prevention, 78 (2015) 58-72.
  20. M. Halperin, M. McCann, An evaluation of scaffold safety at construction sites, Journal of safety research, 35(2) (2004) 141-150.
  21. Kim, C.R. Ahn, K. Yang, Identifying safety hazards using collective bodily responses of workers, Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 143(2) (2016) 04016090.
  22. Mattila, Improvement in the occupational health program in a Finnish construction company by means of systematic workplace investigation of job load and hazard analysis, American journal of industrial medicine, 15(1) (1989) 61-72.
  23. Rozenfeld, R. Sacks, Y. Rosenfeld, H. Baum, Construction job safety analysis, Safety science, 48(4) (2010) 491-498.
  24. Albert, M.R. Hallowell, B. Kleiner, A. Chen, M. Golparvar-Fard, Enhancing construction hazard recognition with high-fidelity augmented virtuality, Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 140(7) (2014) 04014024.
  25. Mitropoulos, T.S. Abdelhamid, G.A. Howell, Systems model of construction accident causation, Journal of construction engineering and management, 131(7) (2005) 816-825.
  26. Albert, M.R. Hallowell, B.M. Kleiner, Experimental field testing of a real-time construction hazard identification and transmission technique, Construction Management and Economics, 32(10) (2014) 1000-1016.
  27. B. Cambraia, T.A. Saurin, C.T. Formoso, Identification, analysis and dissemination of information on near misses: A case study in the construction industry, Safety Science, 48(1) (2010) 91-99.
  28. Jones, C. Kirchsteiger, W. Bjerke, The importance of near miss reporting to further improve safety performance, Journal of Loss Prevention in the process industries, 12(1) (1999) 59-67.
  29. W. Van der Schaaf, J. Moraal, A.R. Hale, Near miss reporting in the chemical process industry, Technische Universiteit Eindhoven, Proefschrift., 1992.
  30. J. Davies, K. Tomasin, Construction safety handbook, Thomas Telford, 1996.
  31. D. Reese, J.V. Eidson, Handbook of OSHA Construction Safety and Health, Second Edition, CRC Press, 2006.
  32. Huang, J. Hinze, Analysis of construction worker fall accidents, Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 129(3) (2003) 262-271.
  33. Wong, Y. Wang, T. Law, C.T. Lo, Association of root causes in fatal fall-from-height construction accidents in Hong Kong, Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 142(7) (2016) 04016018.
  34. D. Nguyen, D.Q. Tran, M.P. Chandrawinata, Predicting safety risk of working at heights using Bayesian networks, Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 142(9) (2016) 04016041.
  35. X. Zou, Fostering a strong construction safety culture, Leadership and Management in Engineering, 11(1) (2010) 11-22.
  36. Petersen, Techniques of safety management, McGraw-Hill Companies, 1978.
  37. W. Heinrich, D.C. Petersen, N.R. Roos, S. Hazlett, Industrial accident prevention: A safety management approach, McGraw-Hill Companies, 1980.
  38. Reason, Human error, Cambridge university press, 1990.
  39. Chen, R. Jin, Multilevel safety culture and climate survey for assessing new safety program, Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 139(7) (2012) 805-817.
  40. M. Choudhry, D. Fang, Why operatives engage in unsafe work behavior: Investigating factors on construction sites, Safety science, 46(4) (2008) 566-584.
  41. Pinto, I.L. Nunes, R.A. Ribeiro, Occupational risk assessment in construction industry–Overview and reflection, Safety science, 49(5) (2011) 616-624.
  42. Aneziris, I.A. Papazoglou, H. Baksteen, M. Mud, B. Ale, L.J. Bellamy, A.R. Hale, A. Bloemhoff, J. Post, J. Oh, Quantified risk assessment for fall from height, Safety Science, 46(2) (2008) 198-220.
  43. I. Glendon, N.A. Stanton, Perspectives on safety culture, Safety Science, 34(1) (2000) 193-214.
  44. Tam, S. Zeng, Z. Deng, Identifying elements of poor construction safety management in China, Safety Science, 42(7) (2004) 569-586.
  45. R. Hallowell, J.A. Gambatese, Activity-based safety risk quantification for concrete formwork construction, Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 135(10) (2009) 990-998.
  46. Imriyas, S. Low, A. Teo, S. Chan, Premium-rating model for workers’ compensation insurance in construction, Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 134(8) (2008) 601-617.
  47. Rajendran, J.A. Gambatese, Development and initial validation of sustainable construction safety and health rating system, Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 135(10) (2009) 1067-1075.
  48. H. Guo, T.W. Yiu, Developing leading indicators to monitor the safety conditions of construction projects, Journal of Management in Engineering, 32(1) (2015) 04015016.
  49. L. Melia, K. Mearns, S.A. Silva, M.L. Lima, Safety climate responses and the perceived risk of accidents in the construction industry, Safety Science, 46(6) (2008) 949-958.
  50. Ketabi, G. Heravi, Investigating and Identifying Safety Hazards and Risks for High-Rise Building Projects, in: 10th National Congress on Civil Engineering, Civil Engineering Department, Sharif University of Technology, Tehran, Iran, 2017, (in persian).
  51. Mohammadi, M. Tavakolan, Y. Khosravi, Factors influencing safety performance on construction projects: A review, Safety science, 109 (2018) 382-397.
  52. J. Bahr, System safety engineering and risk assessment: a practical approach, CRC Press, 2014.
  53. Q. Wang, M.F. Dulaimi, M.Y. Aguria, Risk management framework for construction projects in developing countries, Construction Management and Economics, 22(3) (2004) 237-252.
  54. Chomeya, Quality of psychology test between Likert scale 5 and 6 points, Journal of Social Sciences, 6(3) (2010) 399-403.
  55. George, P. Mallery, SPSS for Windows step by step, 2006.
  56. Kasunic, Designing an effective survey, Carnegie-Mellon Univ. Pittsburgh Pa Software Engineering Inst., 2005.
  57. Pereira, S. Han, S. AbouRizk, U. Hermann, Empirical Testing for Use of Safety Related Measures at the Organizational Level to Assess and Control the On-Site Risk Level, Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 143(6) (2017) 05017004.
  58. Feng, S. Zhang, P. Wu, Factors influencing workplace accident costs of building projects, Safety science, 72 (2015) 97-104.
  59. Pousette, S. Larsson, M.J.S.S. Törner, Safety climate cross-validation, strength and prediction of safety behaviour, 46(3) (2008) 398-404.
  60. D. Cooper, R.A. Phillips, Exploratory analysis of the safety climate and safety behavior relationship, Journal of safety research, 35(5) (2004) 497-512.
  61. Wu, Q. Liu, L. Zhang, M.J. Skibniewski, Y.J.A.A. Wang, Prevention, Prospective safety performance evaluation on construction sites, 78 (2015) 58-72.
  62. M. Goh, N.F. Binte Sa’adon, Cognitive factors influencing safety behavior at height: A multimethod exploratory study, Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 141(6) (2015) 04015003.
  63. J. Gravetter, Statistics for the behavioral sciences - 9th edition, Wadsworth Cengage Learning, Belmont, California, 2013.
  64. J. Lowe, M.W. Emsley, A. Harding, Predicting construction cost using multiple regression techniques, Journal of construction engineering and management, 132(7) (2006) 750-758.
  65. Spohn, Stochastic independence, causal independence, and shieldability, Journal of Philosophical logic, 9(1) (1980) 73-99.
  66. Pearl, Causality: models, reasoning, and inference, Cambridge Univ, in, Pr, 2000.
  67. E. Neapolitan, Learning bayesian networks, Pearson Prentice Hall Upper Saddle River, NJ, 2004.
  68. Jitwasinkul, B.H. Hadikusumo, A.Q. Memon, A Bayesian Belief Network model of organizational factors for improving safe work behaviors in Thai construction industry, Safety science, 82 (2016) 264-273.
  69. Zhang, X. Wu, M.J. Skibniewski, J. Zhong, Y. Lu, Bayesian-network-based safety risk analysis in construction projects, Reliability Engineering & System Safety, 131 (2014) 29-39.
  70. -S. Leu, C.-M. Chang, Bayesian-network-based safety risk assessment for steel construction projects, Accident Analysis & Prevention, 54 (2013) 122-133.
  71. -Y. Kim, N. Van Tuan, S.O. Ogunlana, Quantifying schedule risk in construction projects using Bayesian belief networks, International Journal of Project Management, 27(1) (2009) 39-50.
  72. McCabe, S.M. AbouRizk, R. Goebel, Belief networks for construction performance diagnostics, Journal of Computing in Civil Engineering, 12(2) (1998) 93-100.
  73. Pearl, Reverend Bayes on inference engines: A distributed hierarchical approach, Cognitive Systems Laboratory, School of Engineering and Applied Science, University of California, Los Angeles, 1982.
  74. J. Spiegelhalter, R.P. Knill-Jones, Statistical and knowledge-based approaches to clinical decision-support systems, with an application in gastroenterology, Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series A (General), (1984) 35-77.
  75. Minsky, Steps toward artificial intelligence, Proceedings of the IRE, 49(1) (1961) 8-30.
  76. Bouissou, F. Martin, A. Ourghanlian, and Assessment of a safety-critical system including software: a Bayesian belief network for evidence sources, in: Reliability and Maintainability Symposium, 1999. Proceedings. Annual, IEEE, 1999, pp. 142-150.
  77. Ziv, D.J. Richardson, Constructing Bayesian-network models of software testing and maintenance uncertainties, in: Software Maintenance, 1997. Proceedings, International Conference on, IEEE, 1997, pp. 100-109.
  78. Premchaiswadi, Bayesian Networks, InTech, Croatia, 2012.
  79. Friis-Hansen, Bayesian networks as a decision support tool in marine applications, Department of Naval Architecture and Offshore Engineering, Technical University of Denmark, (2000).
  80. D. Nielsen, F.V. Jensen, Bayesian networks and decision graphs, Springer Science & Business Media, 2009.
  81. Pelikan, Hierarchical Bayesian optimization algorithm, Hierarchical Bayesian Optimization Algorithm, (2005) 105-129.
  82. B. Kjærulff, A.L. Madsen, Bayesian Networks and Influence Diagrams: A Guide to Construction and Analysis, Springer New York, 2012.
  83. Koski, J. Noble, Bayesian networks: an introduction, John Wiley & Sons, 2011.
آمار
تعداد مشاهده مقاله: 1,006
تعداد دریافت فایل اصل مقاله: 1,475


سامانه مدیریت نشریات علمی. طراحی و پیاده سازی از سیناوب