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ارزیابی تغییرات تراز و غلظت نیترات آب های زیرزمینی دشت کبودرآهنگ با استفاده از سری های زمانی | ||
| نشریه مهندسی عمران امیرکبیر | ||
| مقاله 7، دوره 49، شماره 2، مرداد 1396، صفحه 285-294 اصل مقاله (711.56 K) | ||
| نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی | ||
| شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22060/ceej.2015.415 | ||
| نویسندگان | ||
| مجید احتشامی* 1؛ محمد خراسانی1؛ حامد قدیمی2؛ نگین حیات بینی2 | ||
| 1دانشکده مهندسی عمران و محیط زیست، دانشگاه خواج هنصیرالدین طوسی، تهران، ایران | ||
| 2دانشکده مهندسی عمران، دانشگاه صنعتی شریف، تهران، ایران | ||
| چکیده | ||
| منابع آب‌های زیرزمینی یکی از مهم‌ترین و باارزش‌ترین منابع آب به شمار می‌روند، شناخت صحیح و بهره‌برداری اصولی از آن‌ها به خصوص در مناطق خشک و نیمه‌خشک می‌تواند در توسعه پایدار بسیاری از فعالیت‌های کشاورزی، اجتماعی و اقتصادی آن منطقه تأثیر بسزایی داشته باشد. برای آگاهی از وضعیت نوسانات سطح و غلظت نیترات آب زیرزمینی در دشت کبودرآهنگ از مدل‌های سری زمانی برای پیش‌بینی وضعیت سطح آب‌زیرزمینی در طی سال‌های 1367-1386 و غلظت نیترات در سال‌های 1385-1389 استفاده گردید. توسط مدل‌های باکس-جنکینز، پیش‌بینی هیدروگراف 2 ساله و کموگراف یک ساله تهیه گردید. مدل‌های باکس‌جنکینز، هالت وینترز و برونیابی محوری، جهت واسنجی و پیش‌بینی داده‌ها استفاده گردید. تحلیل خطای باقیمانده‌ها و صحت‌سنجی مدل باکس جنکینز از طریق روش پرت مانتو و آکائیک صورت گرفت. نتایج مدل باکس جنکینز نشان داد که سطح آب‌زیرزمینی دشت در 4 سال آینده 6 متر افت خواهد داشت. مقدار متوسط غلظت نیترات در طی ماه‌های سال برابر با mg/l 48/08 است. نتایج تحلیل خطاهای مدل‌های کمی و کیفی (باکس جنکیز و هالت وینترز و برونیابی محوری ) که شامل SSE و RMSE و MAE بود نشان‌دهنده پتانسیل بهینه یابی توسط مدل باکس جنکینز میباشد. | ||
| کلیدواژه‌ها | ||
| سری زمانی؛ مدلسازی؛ تراز آب زیرزمینی؛ نیترات؛ کبودرآهنگ | ||
| موضوعات | ||
| آب های زیر زمینی؛ تغییر اقلیم و اثرات زیست محیطی؛ کیفیت آب؛ کیفیت منابع آب؛ مدیریت منابع آب؛ مهندسی محیط زیست | ||
| عنوان مقاله [English] | ||
| Analysis of Temporal and Periodic Changes of Groundwater Depth and Nitrate Concentration Using Time Series Modeling (Case Study: Kabudarahang Plain) | ||
| نویسندگان [English] | ||
| M. Ehteshami1؛ M. Khorasani1؛ H. Ghadimi2؛ N. Hayatbini2 | ||
| 1Department of Environmental Engineering Collage, K.N. Toosi University of Technology, Tehran, Iran | ||
| 2Civil and Environmental Engineering Collage, Sharif University of Technology, Tehran, Iran | ||
| چکیده [English] | ||
| ABSTRACT In this study, ground water level fluctuations and Nitrate concentrations of kabudarahang aquifer were investigated with application of time series models for modeling of ground water quantity and quality parameters. For data regarding the status of groundwater level and Nitrate concentration fluctuations in project area time series models were used to forecast the groundwater level and Nitrate concentration. Residual error analysis, comparison of observed and calculated ground water levels and Nitrate concentrations performed and finally a prediction model for ground water conditions in Kabudarahang aquifer developed. Predicted values were calibrated by the Box-Jenkins, Holt Winters and extrapolation axes models. A residual error analysis, based upon calculated and observed groundwater level and Nitrate concentration performed as a model verification tool and finally the Box Jenkins models were evaluated through portmanteau method and Akaike information criterion. The model verification results showed that the SARIMA model is the optimum algorithm to simulate seasonal input data variables. Model results showed that the groundwater level in this aquifer will endure a 6 meter decline in four upcoming years and indicated that the maximum Nitrate concentration would reach 50 mg/l in Bahman and shahrivar of 1390. | ||
| کلیدواژه‌ها [English] | ||
| Time Series, Stochastic analysis, Groundwater Modeling, Nitrate Concentration, Kabudarahang | ||
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| مراجع | ||
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