ارزیابی ریسک ایمنی سدها (مطالعه موردی: ریسک سیلاب در سد گلستان)

[1]Graham, L. P. and Bartsch, M.; “Risk Analysis Safety Assessment for Use at Swedish Dams,” Presented at the Symposium: Research and Development in the Field of Dams, Cranes-Montana, Switzerland, Vol. 7–9, 1995.

[2]Bowles, D. S.; “Evaluation and Use of Risk Estimates in Dam Safety Decision Making (20-Year Retrospective and Prospective of Risk-based Decision-making,” ASCE, Santa Barbara, California, pp. 17–32, 2001.

[3]Movahhedinia, J.; “Preparation of Operational Schedule in Emergency Situation for Flood Damage Reduction from Dam Break (Case Study: Golestan Dam 1),” M.Sc. Thesis in Management of Natural Disasters, Department of Environment, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran, 2008 (in Persian).

[4]Goodarzi, E.; Shui, L. T. and Ziaei, M.; “Dam Overtopping Risk Using Probabilistic Concepts-case Study: The Meijaran Dam, Iran,” Ain Shams Engineering Journal, Vol. 4, No. 2, pp. 185–197, 2013.

[5]Fell, R.; Bowles, D. S.; Anderson, L. R. and Bell, G.; “The State of Methods for Estimating of the Probability of Failure Dams for Using Quantitative Risk Assessment,” 20^th International Commission on Large Dams Congress, Beijing, China, 2000.

[6]Consulting Engineers of Tehran-Berkeley; “First Phase of Study on Dam and Water Distribution Network of Garkaz Plan (Golestan),” Mazandaran Regional Water Company, Ministry of Energy, Vol. 8: Hydrological Studies, 1993 (in Persian).

[7]ANCOLD (Australian National Committee on Large Dams; “Guidelines on Risk Assessment,” 2003.

[8]Hill, P. I.; Bowles, D. S.; Nothan, R. J. and Herweyen, R.; “On the Art of Event Tree Modeling for Portfolio Risk Assessment,” NZSOLD/ANCOLD 2001 Conference on Dams, pp. 99–108, 2001.

[9]Cyganiewicz, J. and Smart, J.; “U.S. Bureau of Reclamation’s Use of Risk Analysis and Risk Assessment in Dam Safety Decision Making,” ICOLD 20, Beijing 2000, Vol. Q76, 2000.

[10]Khodaei, M.; Attari, J. and Bani-Hashemi, M.; “Rule of Flow Rate and Escape's Time in Crisis Management of Flood from Dam Break (Case Study: Golestan Dam 1),” 8^th International Congress on Civil Engineering, Shiraz University, Shiraz, Iran, 2009 (in Persian).

[11]Ghanadkar-Sarabi, M.; “Numerical Model of Soil Dam Break in Effect of Water Overflow on the Body,” M.Sc. Thesis in Hydraulic Structures, Faculty of Engineering, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran, 2011 (in Persian).

[12]Statistical Center of Iran; “Selected Results of Census 1390,” Planning and Strategic Supervision of Presidential Adjutancy, 2011 (in Persian).

[13]ICOLD; “Bulletin 130-Risk Assessment in Dam Safety Assessment,” A Reconnaissance of Benefits, Methods and Current Applications, 2005.

[14]Chauhan, S. S. and Bowles, D. S.; “Dam Safety Risk Assessment with Uncertainty Analysis,” Proceeding of the ANCOLD Risk Workshop, Launceston, Tasmania, Australia, 2003.

[15]Srivastava, A.; Bowles, D. S. and Chauhan, S. S.; “Generalized Event Tree Algorithm and Software for Dam Safety Risk Assessment,” Utah State University, Logan, Utah, 2011.

[16]Lee, J. S.; “Uncertainty Analysis in Dam Safety Risk Assessment,” Civil Engineering, Utah State University, Logan, Utah, 2002.

[17]Mahmoudian-Shoushtari, M.; “Principles of Flow in Open Channels,” Shahid Chamran University Press, Ahvaz, Iran, Vol. 2, 2008 (in Persian).

[18]Lar Consulting Engineers; “Study on Comprehensive Plan for Flooding of Golestan Province,” Golestan Regional Water Company, Ministry of Energy, Vol. 10, 2006 (in Persian).

[19]Golestan Regional Water Co.; “The Plan of Flood Immediate Response from Golestan Dam Break (Golestan 1),” 2009 (in Persian).

[20]USBR; “Dam Safety Risk Analysis Best Practices Training Manual,” 5^th Consequences on Dam Failure, Bureau of Reclamation, Denver, Colorado, 2009.

[21]USBR; “Dam Safety Risk Analysis Best Practices Training Manual,” 30^th Public Risk Tolerance and Risk Guidelines, Bureau of Reclamation, Denver, Colorado, 2009.

[22]USBR; “Dam Safety Public Protection Guidelines: Example of Use,” Reclamation Managing Water in the West, U.S. Department of the Interior, Bureau of Reclamation, Denver, Colorado, 2011.