پیوندهای مفید
آمار
| تعداد نشریات | 9 |
| تعداد شمارهها | 452 |
| تعداد مقالات | 5,748 |
| تعداد مشاهده مقاله | 8,233,612 |
| تعداد دریافت فایل اصل مقاله | 6,751,292 |
ارزیابی ریسک ایمنی سدها (مطالعه موردی: ریسک سیلاب در سد گلستان) | ||
| نشریه مهندسی عمران امیرکبیر | ||
| مقاله 5، دوره 48، شماره 4، دی 1395، صفحه 395-406 اصل مقاله (1.52 M) | ||
| نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی | ||
| شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22060/ceej.2015.505 | ||
| نویسندگان | ||
| منا محمودیان شوشتری1؛ بهرام ملک محمدی* 2؛ محمدعلی بنی هاشمی3 | ||
| 1کارشناس ارشد، دانشکده محیط زیست، دانشگاه تهران | ||
| 2دانشیار، دانشکده محیط زیست، دانشگاه تهران | ||
| 3دانشیار، دانشکده مهندسی عمران، دانشگاه تهران | ||
| چکیده | ||
| ایمنی سد در صنعت سدسازی از مهم ترین مسائل در هنگام طراحی، ساخت و بهره برداری به شمار می رود. امروزه استفاده از فنون ارزیابی کمی ریسک در مدیریت ایمنی سدها (به ویژه در کشورهای توسعه یافته)، به سرعت در حال گسترش است. اما این رویکرد جدید به مهندسی سد و ایمنی در ایران همچنان ناشناخته بوده و تحقیقات محدودی در این زمینه انجام شده است. در این مقاله، در ابتدا روش های ارزیابی ریسک در ایمنی سدها مورد بررسی قرار گرفته و روش ارزیابی بر اساس دستورالعمل کمیته ملی سدهای بزرگ استرالیا (ANCOLD ) تشریح شده است. در ادامه، ایمنی سد گلستان به عنوان مطالعه موردی بررسی شده و با توجه به روش پیشنهادی، ارزیابی ریسک شکست این سد تحت خطر وقوع سیل در بالادست آن انجام گرفته است. احتمال شکست سد گلستان با استفاده از روش ارزیابی درخت رویداد(ETA)محاسبه شده و تعداد تلفات جانی به علت سیل ناشی از شکست سد نیز از طریق روش رایج در اداره اصلاح اراضی آمریکا(USBR)موسوم به 06 - DSO-99 تخمین زده شده است. در آخر از طریق مقدار ریسک بدست آمده و مقایسه آن با معیارهای مختلف برای سطح ریسک قابل قبول، این نتیجه گیری حاصل شد که مقدار ریسک شکست سد گلستان بر اثر وقوع سیل در بالادست آن، غیرقابل قبول بوده و اقدامها برای کاهش ریسک فوری ضروری است. | ||
| کلیدواژهها | ||
| ارزیابی ریسک؛ ایمنی؛ سد گلستان؛ ارزیابی درخت رویداد؛ خطر سیلاب | ||
| عنوان مقاله [English] | ||
| Dam Safety Risk Assessment (Case Study: Flood Risk for Golestan Dam) | ||
| نویسندگان [English] | ||
| M. Mahmoudian-Shoushtari1؛ B. Malekmohammadi2؛ M. A. Banihashemi3 | ||
| 1M.Sc., Faculty of Environment, University of Tehran | ||
| 2Associate Professor, Faculty of Environment, University of Tehran | ||
| 3Associate Professor, Faculty of Civil Engineering, University of Tehran | ||
| چکیده [English] | ||
| In dam construction industry, the safety of dam is one of the most important challenges that should be considered in design, construction and operation phase. Recently, use of quantitative risk analysis, as a useful tool in dam safety risk management, is rapidly increasing. In this paper, first, risk assessment methods in dam safety are investigated and australian national committee on large dams (ANCOLD) guideline for dam safety risk assessment is detailed. Then, as a case study, safety of Goleastan dam, in northeast of Iran, is assessed considering risk analysis approach for upstream flood hazard. For calculating the probability of failure of dam, the various methods were assessed and finally event tree analysis (ETA), as most commonly method in dam safety risk analysis was used. The number of life losses due to flooding of Golestan dam break is estimated based on united states bureau of reclamation (USBR) methodology, known as DSO-99-06. Finally, according to calculated risk and comparing with different criteria for acceptable risk, it is obvious that the risk of Golestan dam break due to upstream flood is unacceptable and immediate risk reduction measures are necessary. | ||
| کلیدواژهها [English] | ||
| Safety Risk Assessment, Golestan Dam, Evant Tree Analysis, Flood Hazard | ||
|
سایر فایل های مرتبط با مقاله
|
||
| مراجع | ||
|
[1]Graham, L. P. and Bartsch, M.; “Risk Analysis Safety Assessment for Use at Swedish Dams,” Presented at the Symposium: Research and Development in the Field of Dams, Cranes-Montana, Switzerland, Vol. 7–9, 1995. [2]Bowles, D. S.; “Evaluation and Use of Risk Estimates in Dam Safety Decision Making (20-Year Retrospective and Prospective of Risk-based Decision-making,” ASCE, Santa Barbara, California, pp. 17–32, 2001. [3]Movahhedinia, J.; “Preparation of Operational Schedule in Emergency Situation for Flood Damage Reduction from Dam Break (Case Study: Golestan Dam 1),” M.Sc. Thesis in Management of Natural Disasters, Department of Environment, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran, 2008 (in Persian). [4]Goodarzi, E.; Shui, L. T. and Ziaei, M.; “Dam Overtopping Risk Using Probabilistic Concepts-case Study: The Meijaran Dam, Iran,” Ain Shams Engineering Journal, Vol. 4, No. 2, pp. 185–197, 2013. [5]Fell, R.; Bowles, D. S.; Anderson, L. R. and Bell, G.; “The State of Methods for Estimating of the Probability of Failure Dams for Using Quantitative Risk Assessment,” 20th International Commission on Large Dams Congress, Beijing, China, 2000. [6]Consulting Engineers of Tehran-Berkeley; “First Phase of Study on Dam and Water Distribution Network of Garkaz Plan (Golestan),” Mazandaran Regional Water Company, Ministry of Energy, Vol. 8: Hydrological Studies, 1993 (in Persian). [7]ANCOLD (Australian National Committee on Large Dams; “Guidelines on Risk Assessment,” 2003. [8]Hill, P. I.; Bowles, D. S.; Nothan, R. J. and Herweyen, R.; “On the Art of Event Tree Modeling for Portfolio Risk Assessment,” NZSOLD/ANCOLD 2001 Conference on Dams, pp. 99–108, 2001. [9]Cyganiewicz, J. and Smart, J.; “U.S. Bureau of Reclamation’s Use of Risk Analysis and Risk Assessment in Dam Safety Decision Making,” ICOLD 20, Beijing 2000, Vol. Q76, 2000. [10]Khodaei, M.; Attari, J. and Bani-Hashemi, M.; “Rule of Flow Rate and Escape's Time in Crisis Management of Flood from Dam Break (Case Study: Golestan Dam 1),” 8th International Congress on Civil Engineering, Shiraz University, Shiraz, Iran, 2009 (in Persian). [11]Ghanadkar-Sarabi, M.; “Numerical Model of Soil Dam Break in Effect of Water Overflow on the Body,” M.Sc. Thesis in Hydraulic Structures, Faculty of Engineering, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran, 2011 (in Persian). [12]Statistical Center of Iran; “Selected Results of Census 1390,” Planning and Strategic Supervision of Presidential Adjutancy, 2011 (in Persian). [13]ICOLD; “Bulletin 130-Risk Assessment in Dam Safety Assessment,” A Reconnaissance of Benefits, Methods and Current Applications, 2005. [14]Chauhan, S. S. and Bowles, D. S.; “Dam Safety Risk Assessment with Uncertainty Analysis,” Proceeding of the ANCOLD Risk Workshop, Launceston, Tasmania, Australia, 2003. [15]Srivastava, A.; Bowles, D. S. and Chauhan, S. S.; “Generalized Event Tree Algorithm and Software for Dam Safety Risk Assessment,” Utah State University, Logan, Utah, 2011. [16]Lee, J. S.; “Uncertainty Analysis in Dam Safety Risk Assessment,” Civil Engineering, Utah State University, Logan, Utah, 2002. [17]Mahmoudian-Shoushtari, M.; “Principles of Flow in Open Channels,” Shahid Chamran University Press, Ahvaz, Iran, Vol. 2, 2008 (in Persian). [18]Lar Consulting Engineers; “Study on Comprehensive Plan for Flooding of Golestan Province,” Golestan Regional Water Company, Ministry of Energy, Vol. 10, 2006 (in Persian). [19]Golestan Regional Water Co.; “The Plan of Flood Immediate Response from Golestan Dam Break (Golestan 1),” 2009 (in Persian). [20]USBR; “Dam Safety Risk Analysis Best Practices Training Manual,” 5th Consequences on Dam Failure, Bureau of Reclamation, Denver, Colorado, 2009. [21]USBR; “Dam Safety Risk Analysis Best Practices Training Manual,” 30th Public Risk Tolerance and Risk Guidelines, Bureau of Reclamation, Denver, Colorado, 2009. [22]USBR; “Dam Safety Public Protection Guidelines: Example of Use,” Reclamation Managing Water in the West, U.S. Department of the Interior, Bureau of Reclamation, Denver, Colorado, 2011. | ||
|
آمار تعداد مشاهده مقاله: 4,878 تعداد دریافت فایل اصل مقاله: 6,740 |
||
