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مدل‌‌سازی اثر سن وسایل نقلیه در برخورد با اشیا ثابت حاشیه راه‌‌ها | ||
| نشریه مهندسی عمران امیرکبیر | ||
| مقاله 3، دوره 57، شماره 1، فروردین 1404، صفحه 45-62 اصل مقاله (908.35 K) | ||
| نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی | ||
| شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22060/ceej.2025.21850.7840 | ||
| نویسندگان | ||
| علی توکلی کاشانی* ؛ ایمان تابع بردبار؛ مرضیه رخشانی مقدم | ||
| گروه حمل و نقل، دانشکده مهندسی عمران، دانشگاه علم و صنعت ایران، تهران، ایران - مرکز تحقیقات ایمنی کاربردی حمل و نقل جاده‌‌ای، دانشگاه علم و صنعت ایران، تهران، ایران | ||
| چکیده | ||
| در این مقاله اثر افزایش سن خودرو بر شدت جراحت رانندگان در تصادفات برخورد با شیء ثابت، با بررسی ایمنی برخورد پنج خودروی پر کاربرد در ایران (پراید، پژو 405، پژو 206، سمند، تندر 90) بررسی شده است. با توجه به اینکه ایمنی راه‌‌های برون‌‌شهری و استفاده از امکانات ایمنی در این مسیرها ممکن است کمتر از مسیرهای شهری باشد، پژوهش حاضر تنها به تصادفات راه‌‌های برون‌‌شهری (1390-1396) پرداخته است. در ابتدا، از روش درخت تصمیم و رگرسیون برای شناسایی متغیرهای مهم استفاده شده و سپس مدل رگرسیون لجستیک دوگانه جهت بررسی رابطه شدت جراحت رانندگان و عملکرد ایمنی استفاده شده است، و شاخصی با نام "ایمنی برخورد" تعریف شده است. در این مطالعه، سن خودرو همراه هفت متغیر دیگر (سن و جنسیت راننده، وضعیت روشنایی، شرایط سطح راه، نوع راه، شانه راه، و استفاده از کمربند ایمنی) به عنوان متغیرهای مستقل در نظر گرفته شده‌‌اند. نتایج نشان می‌‌دهد که با افزایش سن خودرو، عملکرد ایمنی کاهش می‌‌یابد، به طوری که بخت فوت یا جراحت رانندگان به طور متوسط پس از پنج سال 20 درصد و بعد از 10 سال 50 درصد افزایش می‌‌یابد. همچنین، این کاهش عملکرد ایمنی در تمامی خودروها یکسان نبوده است، به طوری که عملکرد سمند پس از 10 سال به مراتب بدتر از سایر خودروها بوده است، در حالی که تاثیر افزایش سن برای پژو 405 و پارس کمتر از سایر خودروها بوده است، که نشان می‌‌دهد خودروی سمند زودتر از سایر خودروها مستهلک می‌‌شود و عمر مفید کوتاه‌‌تری دارد. | ||
| کلیدواژه‌ها | ||
| ایمنی؛ برخورد با شیء ثابت؛ درخت تصمیم؛ رگرسیون لجستیک؛ سن خودرو | ||
| موضوعات | ||
| ایمنی | ||
| عنوان مقاله [English] | ||
| Modeling the effect of age of vehicles in collisions with fixed roadside objects | ||
| نویسندگان [English] | ||
| Ali Tavakoli Kashani؛ Iman Tabe bordbar؛ Marzieh Rakhshani Moghadam | ||
| IUST | ||
| چکیده [English] | ||
| This study aimed to examine the crashworthiness (CW) index of the five most commonly used Iranian passenger vehicle brands (Pride, Peugeot 405, Peugeot 206, Samand, and Thunder 90) by assessing the effect of vehicle age on driver injury severity in rural fixed-object crashes. Since rural roads have mostly lower safety standards and usage of safety features than urban areas, only rural crash data from Iran (2011-2017) were analyzed. A two-step approach was applied: initially, the Classification and Regression Tree (CART) method identified important variables, and then, Bionamial Logistic Regression modeled the relationships between injury severity and safety performance, using vehicle age and seven additional variables (driver age and gender, lighting conditions, road surface, road type, shoulder type, and seatbelt use) as independent variables. The CW index, based on the odds ratios, exhibited that vehicles over five years old had a 20% increase in odds of fatal or severe injury, which rose to 50% for vehicles over ten years old. Notably, safety performance declines were not uniform. While most brands decreased similarly up to ten years, Samand showed faster deterioration after this period. Conversely, Peugeot 405 and Pars demonstrated slower declines, indicating longer effective lifespans. Additionally, drivers under 25, driving at sunrise, and not wearing seatbelts were identified as high-risk groups across most brands. | ||
| کلیدواژه‌ها [English] | ||
| Crashworthiness, Collision with Fixed Objects, Cart, Binomial Logistic Regression, Vehicle Age | ||
| مراجع | ||
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