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بررسی مدیریت ریسک در مرحله احداث با روش مدل‌سازی ساختاری تفسیری (مطالعه موردی: پروژه احداث خط لوله نفت یزد- نائین) | ||
| نشریه مهندسی عمران امیرکبیر | ||
| دوره 55، شماره 4، تیر 1402، صفحه 833-848 اصل مقاله (843.68 K) | ||
| نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی | ||
| شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22060/ceej.2023.21184.7643 | ||
| نویسندگان | ||
| میثم سهرابی؛ هیرش سلطان پناه* ؛ امیراسعد نصری زر؛ محمدصدیق ثابتی | ||
| گروه مهندسی عمران، دانشکده فنی و مهندسی، واحد سنندج، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، سنندج، ایران. | ||
| چکیده | ||
| شناخت ماهیت ریسک‌های تأثیرگذار بر پروژههای نفتی یک موضوع مهم در مدیریت ریسک در شرکت‌هایی مانند شرکت خطوط لوله و مخابرات نفت ایران است. هدف این مقاله، شناسایی ریسک‌‌ها و استخراج ساختار روابط میان ریسک‌های بحرانی پروژه احداث خط لوله نفت یزد- نائین با بهکارگیری رویکرد مدل‌سازی ساختاری تفسیری جهت کمک به ارکان پروژه می‌‌باشد. برای این کار ابتدا با استفاده از تکنیک‌‌های مختلف، ریسک‌های بحرانی پروژه شناسایی و اولویت‌بندی شده و سپس با استفاده از مدل‌سازی ساختاری تفسیری، روابط متقابل میان ریسک‌‌ها و قدرت تأثیرگذاری و تأثیرپذیری آن‌ها بر یکدیگر مشخص شدند. در این مقاله تلاش شد با استفاده از مدل‌سازی ساختاری تفسیری درک واقع‌بینانه‌تری جهت مواجهه با عدم اطمینان ناشی از ریسک‌های پروژه احداث خط لوله نفت یزد- نائین ایجاد گردد. نتایج پژوهش نشان داد که ریسک تحریم‌‌ها بر پروژه به جهت آنکه دارای بیشترین تأثیر بر سایر ریسک‌‌ها است و کمترین اثرپذیری را از آن‌ها دارد، می‌‌بایست در کانون توجه مدیریت ریسک قرار گیرد. همچنین ازآنجاکه در این پژوهش از نظرات کارشناسان و افراد خبره درگیر در پروژه استفاده گردیده است، انتظار می‌‌رود اجرای ساختار بیان‌‌شده در این مقاله بتواند در صورت بهکارگیری در پروژههای مشابه، تأثیر مثبت و به سزایی جهت تحقق اهداف پروژه از قبیل هزینه، زمان، محدوده پروژه، کیفیت و بهداشت، ایمنی و محیط‌زیست داشته باشد. | ||
| کلیدواژه‌ها | ||
| مدیریت ریسک؛ شناسایی ریسک؛ تجزیه‌وتحلیل ریسک؛ مدل‌سازی ساختاری تفسیری؛ تحلیل ماتریسی تأثیر متقابل | ||
| موضوعات | ||
| مدیریت ریسک | ||
| عنوان مقاله [English] | ||
| The Investigation of Risk Management at the Stage of Construction with Interpretive Structural Modeling method (Case Study: Yazd-Naein Oil Pipeline Construction Project) | ||
| نویسندگان [English] | ||
| Meysam Sohrabi؛ Heirsh Soltanpanah؛ AmirAsad Nasrizar؛ MohammadSedigh Sabeti | ||
| Ph.D. Candidate in Civil Engineering- Construction Engineering and Management, Department of Civil Engineering, Faculty of Science and Engineering, Islamic Azad University, Sanandaj Branch, Sanandaj, Iran. | ||
| چکیده [English] | ||
| Recognizing the nature of risks effectively on oil projects is an important issue in the risk management of companies such as the Iranian Oil Pipeline and Telecommunication Company. This study aims at identifying risks and extracting the structure of relationships between critical risks of the Yazd-Naein oil pipeline construction project using Interpretative Structural Modeling (ISM) to help the pillars of the project. To do this, using different techniques, first, the critical risks of the project are identified and prioritized, and then using ISM, the reciprocal relationships between risks and their effectiveness on each other are recognized. This study has attempted to make a more realistic comprehension for confrontation with non-security caused by the risks of the Yazd-Naein oil pipeline construction project using ISM. The results showed that sanctions risk on project has to be concentrated by risk management since it has the highest effect on other risks and the least affectability from them. Also, since the opinion of experts has been used in this study, in the case of using in similar projects, it is expected that the implementation of the mentioned structure may positively and significantly influence the achievement of project goals such as cost, time, project scope, quality and sanitation, security and environment. | ||
| کلیدواژه‌ها [English] | ||
| Risk management, risk identification, risk analysis, interpretive structural modeling (ISM), Cross-Impact matrix multiplication applied to classification | ||
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| مراجع | ||
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